When I heard the failure of the Trump-Kim summit in Vietnam, on February 27-28, an Italian word crossed my mind: Catenaccio. This term designs a highly sophisticated tactical system for playing football(soccer), in which everything is based on a very well-organized defense. This was the only way for teams with less talent and physical strength to beat stronger opponents. Of course, the matches were of poor quality, but the most important thing in life is to win. Isn’t it?
In terms of international relations, I have the impression that this is exactly what is happening in every summit between the USA and the North Korea, since the Armistice Agreement on 1953. A demonstration of catenaccio, played by the North Korean leaders just like Kim Jong Un. The same way as it was done by his father, Kim Jong Il, and before him, by his grand-father, Kim Il Sung . Their goal is always very simple to understand. To win time, again and again, by maintaining pressure to their allies and rivals, in order to stay on power for the years, or the decades to come. After all, their method seems to work very efficiently since a long time ago. Doesn’t it?
So, above all, let’s be realistic. In this survival of the fittest power game, between a small nation like North Korea and the only superpower in the world, the USA. All big classics of an asymmetric nonviolent conflict basics are used, such as victimization. Pyongyang likes to present itself as David fighting Goliath. Like a dwarf in front of a giant. Putting at stake the domination of Washington after the end of the cold war. In French terms, this reminds me a lot of the famous Asterix comics, in which a tiny Galatian village, is resisting fiercely, against the enormous and very powerful Roman Empire. Spreading terror among the Roman legions thanks to the use of a magic drink, making the paysans(peasant) extremely powerful, and able to humiliate their enemies in every occasion.
In the case of North Korea, there is no magic used, but the most powerful weapon ever made by man. Nuclear bombs became the keystone of the Pyongyang foreign policy. Allowing the establishment of a quite convenient balance of power, as well as a strong asset in every negotiation. This looks quite logical. There is no other way for the North Korean regime to survive, except from using the threat of lunching a missile at any moment. It’s a mad dog strategy perfectly applied for decades…
Of course, according to many specialists, nuclear weapons are, more less, political weapons. Rationally speaking, they cannot be used in a military conflict, because of their devastating effects in the environment. This is the reason why countries like the USA, Russia, France, UK, prefer to use conventional weapons in all the military conflicts they have engaged since the end of WWII. There is no point of contaminating with radioactivity not only a battlefield, but also a big territory, for the decades, or centuries to come.
But, in the case of North Korea this might seem possible. This state is ruled by the same family since 1953. Even if this is not something unusual in international politics. For centuries, emperors, kings and queens ruled they people, just like in England, Netherlands, Belgium, or Sweden. But things changed little by little. Urbanization, industrial revolutions, and social movements shaped a new world. Parliamentary democracy and free market economy combined with hi-tech allowed to millions of people all over the world to choose their leaders, every 4~6 years. No matter how modern democracy is quite often heavily criticized, it remains a political regime based on the power of the people.
Almost 75% of the French voters participated in the 2017 presidential election, even though, unlike other countries like Belgium, vote in France is not obligatory. And it’s very interesting that when the Yellow vests protestors, tried to set up a political party, they failed. According to the polls in the beginning, they seduced 13% of the electorate. But just 3% according to the last polls…
However, North Korea is not like France. There is no long-standing tradition of ideological and social movements, strikes, and of a very critical attitude towards the country’s leaders and the state, as well as an almost instinctive openness to modernity and globalization. North Korea nation building is based on a communist ideology at Cold War era, combined with nationalism and anti-Americanism fiercely demonstrated for years during the annual anti-US imperialism rallies. And the will of its ruling class to maintain overall control in all sectors of the everyday life and economy.
Now N.K is becoming some kind of a big power, able to negotiate directly with the USA. Keeping the population isolated from the rest of the world, especially after the fall of the Berlin wall, Soviet Union, and China’s transformation in one of the biggest economic powers in the world. Key factor for all that, is the same that was applied by similar political regimes in the past, like by Enver Hoxha’s Albania from 1946 to1991, or by East Germany from 1946 to 1989.
In geopolitical point of view, N.K shares borders with China (1416 Km), Russia (19 Km) and South Korea (238 Km). And N.K plays to the perfection the role of a trouble maker. As a result, the North Korea looks like as a unique case in the modern world. And I think this is exactly what makes it an interesting topic for the French media, even though the Korean peninsula is very far from France.
In cultural perspective, the fact that Kim Jong Un was travelling by armored train, looks quite original. In 2019 it is an old-fashioned way of traveling abroad for a state leader. Just like almost all chiefs of state, the French president, Emmanuel Macron travels by plane. This explains why there was a reference about Kim’s long journey by train to the French media.
French media also covered the Trump-Kim summit for another reason. The American president is a red flag for most of them. His way of doing politics, and his style, are often heavily criticized in France. In which good manner and deep knowledge are really appreciated by the voters. During the French TV debate of May 3, 2017 for the last presidential election Emmanuel Macron was very calm and showed his deep knowledge of different topics linked with French politics. On the contrary, Marine Le Pen was quite aggressive and gave many wrong answers. This was her fatal mistake. This explains why Emmanuel Macron was finally elected with 66%. And on May 18, 2017, Marine Le Pen admitted that she was not well prepared for the debate.
In the same time, political communication through twitter is not much appreciated in France. After the Yellow Vests crisis, the French president participated in debates with local peasants, mayors or women for many hours, answering in detail to every question. This is the reason why Donald Trump’s twits are not so well seen. Short messages are not considered, for the time being, as the best solution, in terms of political communication. All this means that someone with Donald Trump’s way of doing politics could not be elected in France, because of a completely different manner of doing politics than in the USA. Despite the traditional good French-American relations, and alliance, French media don’t lose any opportunity in order to present whatever goes wrong in the American politics for Trump, like the shutdown, the mid-terms elections results, or the failure of the Trump-Kim negotiations.
The South Korea president Moon Jae In visited France on October 15-16, 2018 and met the French president Emmanuel Macron. On October 16, 28 the South Korean president participated to « France-Korea Business Leaders’ Summit » organized by the Association of the French companies (MEDEF, in French) and KITA (Korea International Trade Association). The topic of the summit was the fourth industrial revolution, which brings opportunities both for French and Korean companies within the years to come.
During his visitation, Moon presented his point of view about North Korea. He considered that the economic sanctions were not efficient. It’s abolition could give an opportunity for Kim to change his attitude and open his country to the rest of the world. This is the reason why he explained all that to Emmanuel Macron. France (as well as the UK, USA, Russia and China) is a permanent member of the UN Council. After the failure of the Trump-Kim Hanoi summit, the French media described the disappointment of the South Korean president and his wish to work for maintaining peace and economic development in the Korean peninsula.
In conclusion, Trump-Kim Hanoi meeting was not the last one. There will be more and more, unless there is some kind of dramatic change, and strong political wish both from Washington and Pyongyang. But this does not look possible, at least in the short term. Giving at Kim exactly what he is looking for. Remaining more time on power. This could be easier for the time being; taking into consideration that North Korea does not seem to be American president’s Donald Trump top priority.
But this could leave more space for other initiatives in the future. One way or another North Korea’s future remains an open question for the years to come.
After words
Of course, there is no doubt that in terms of international relations, French media’s and authorities’ top priority now, is the next presidential election in Algeria, where the whole situation seems quite complicated and uncertain. But even though the Korean peninsula is situated thousands of kilometers far from Paris, there were short documentaries and articles about the Trump-Kim Hanoi summit in all mainstream French media. Personally speaking, I found them well-done. Taking into consideration that, after all, nothing special happened in the Hanoi summit!
I am pretty sure that, in case of a spectacular Trump-Kim deal, or in case of the end of US economic sanctions against North Korea, there will be much more interest from French media and business. But, following the American president’s Donald Trump decision, the only thing to be done is « wait and see ».
In this point I would like to remind Iran case.When US sanctions were lifted under Obama nuclear deal, French companies were immediately keen to do business in Teheran.
All these explain why, for the time being, speech is silver, and silence is gold for the French media. Probably until the next summit concerning the Korean peninsula or in case something new happens in Washington or in Pyongyang.
Georges TASSIOPOULOS
PhD, Political Science(University of East Paris)
PhD, Political Science (University of East Paris)
